Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Filip ChytilGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Filip HronekPoints2
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:23Quinn Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (2), Filip Hronek (2)5–3
- P317:52Wyatt Johnston Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (2), Jason Robertson (4)4–3
- P218:54Conor Garland Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none4–2
- P210:06Max Sasson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (1)3–2
- P28:50Brock Boeser Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (2), Elias Pettersson (2)2–2
- P26:40Filip Chytil Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (2), Filip Hronek (1)1–2
- P119:22Mikko Rantanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (3), Roope Hintz (5)0–2
- P14:29Mavrik Bourque Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (5), Radek Faksa (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:29Mavrik Bourque Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (5), Radek Faksa (1)VAN 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 58% → 72% +14DAL 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P26:40Filip Chytil Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Evander Kane (2), Filip Hronek (1)VAN 1 – 2 DAL · VAN 13% → 26% +13VAN 13% → 26%+13 pts
- P28:50Brock Boeser Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (2), Elias Pettersson (2)VAN 2 – 2 DAL · VAN 26% → 44% +18VAN 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P210:06Max Sasson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (1)VAN 3 – 2 DAL · VAN 44% → 64% +20VAN 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P218:54Conor Garland Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneVAN 4 – 2 DAL · VAN 69% → 87% +18VAN 69% → 87%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 58%
- ML VAN +130 / DAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 60.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -140
- VAN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −5 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +76 Elo | DAL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 5.01st of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.72nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3243.5% | Shot share | 44.4%25th of 32 |
| 6th of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 32 |
| 25th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 9th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 15392nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321492 | Elo rating | 15455th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  VAN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–43 | 44–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 33–44 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders | 39–43 | 45–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–4 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.