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Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Victory+

Away

Stars

1-0-0

5–4

at

Home

Jets

0-1-0

DAL 50%WPG 50%

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Canada Life Centre · ESPN+, Victory+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.

WPG favored DAL favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3WPG50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Jets

Scoring summary

  • P316:57Kyle Connor Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (3), Dylan DeMelo (2)5–4
  • P311:09Kyle Connor Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (2), Dylan DeMelo (1)5–3
  • P39:53Morgan Barron Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none5–2
  • P33:23Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (1), Thomas Harley (2)5–1
  • P31:35Tyler Seguin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (1), Thomas Harley (1)4–1
  • P31:01Jason Robertson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (2), Roope Hintz (2)3–1
  • P115:24Nils Lundkvist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (1), Jason Robertson (1)2–1
  • P16:19Kyle Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (1), Gabriel Vilardi (1)1–1
  • P13:15Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (1), Sam Steel (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P13:15Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (1), Sam Steel (1)DAL 1 – 0 WPG · DAL 50% → 65% +15
  2. P16:19Kyle Connor Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (1), Gabriel Vilardi (1)DAL 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 35% → 50% +15
  3. P115:24Nils Lundkvist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (1), Jason Robertson (1)DAL 2 – 1 WPG · DAL 50% → 66% +16
  4. P31:01Jason Robertson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (2), Roope Hintz (2)DAL 3 – 1 WPG · DAL 74% → 90% +16
  5. P31:35Tyler Seguin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (1), Thomas Harley (1)DAL 4 – 1 WPG · DAL 91% → 98% +7

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Jets 50%

Toss-upMiss
DAL 50%WPG 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
WPG 50%
ML DAL -110 / WPG -110
Pre-line forecast
WPG 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
WPG 59%
Ratings vs. market
+8.6 pts
WPG: Elo 58.6%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
WPG -100
DAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 2.8 – 2.8 WPG
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALWPGWhy
Team rating15361555Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−5+1DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWPG +60 EloWPG 58.6%
Market-implied ratingsWPG 52.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWPG 53.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastWPG 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatWPG
3rd of 323.4Goals scored3.43rd of 32
7th of 322.7Goals allowed2.31st of 32
5th of 32+0.6Margin+1.01st of 32
18th of 3249.4%Shot share50.9%8th of 32
4th of 3291.1%Save percentage92.2%1st of 32
25th of 323–7Last 107–33rd of 32
7th of 3222–18Road vs home30–113rd of 32
29th of 321497Opponent Elo149925th of 32
7th of 321536Elo rating15552nd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsJets
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2024-25)DALWPG
Puck line44–5647–48
Last 103–75–5
Favorite33–4433–37
Underdog11–1214–11
Overs–unders45–5542–53
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 8–6 WPG in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.