Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Stars- Roope HintzGoals1
- Roope HintzAssists2
- Roope HintzPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:50Roope Hintz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (1), Esa Lindell (2)2–5
- P318:18Radek Faksa Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (2), Tyler Seguin (1)2–4
- P313:04Kirill Kaprizov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (4), Vladimir Tarasenko (4)2–3
- P33:50Matt Boldy Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Zeev Buium (3), Kirill Kaprizov (5)1–3
- P21:31Matt Duchene Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (1), Thomas Harley (4)0–3
- P116:18Wyatt Johnston Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (4), Mikko Rantanen (4)0–2
- P15:37Esa Lindell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (3), Miro Heiskanen (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:37Esa Lindell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (3), Miro Heiskanen (2)MIN 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 62% → 76% +13DAL 62% → 76%+13 pts
- P116:18Wyatt Johnston Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (4), Mikko Rantanen (4)MIN 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 76% → 87% +11DAL 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P21:31Matt Duchene Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (1), Thomas Harley (4)MIN 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 88% → 95% +7DAL 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P33:50Matt Boldy Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Zeev Buium (3), Kirill Kaprizov (5)MIN 1 – 3 DAL · MIN 1% → 6% +5MIN 1% → 6%+5 pts
- P313:04Kirill Kaprizov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (4), Vladimir Tarasenko (4)MIN 2 – 3 DAL · MIN 1% → 12% +11MIN 1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 63%
- ML MIN +160 / DAL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -170
- MIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −5 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +100 Elo | DAL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 16th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 4th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 28–126th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149730th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Elo rating | 15425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–43 | 44–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–25 | 33–44 |
| Underdog | 28–18 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders | 41–47 | 45–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–5 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.