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Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast

Final/SOESPN+, Victory+, Altitude Sports, KTVD-TV (My20)

Away

Stars

2-0-0

5–4

at

Home

Avalanche

2-0-1

DAL 43%COL 57%

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Ball Arena · ESPN+, Victory+, Altitude Sports, KTVD-TV (My20)

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.

COL favored DAL favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3COL50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Stars

Scoring summary

  • SO0:00Mikko Rantanen Goal Wrist Shot2–1
  • SO0:00Valeri Nichushkin Goal Backhand2–1
  • SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Wrist Shot2–1
  • P310:46Nathan MacKinnon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (3), Brent Burns (1)4–4
  • P31:58Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–3
  • P30:34Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (4), Martin Necas (2)3–3
  • P218:25Jason Robertson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (3), Ilya Lyubushkin (1)3–2
  • P215:22Nathan Bastian Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (1), Miro Heiskanen (1)2–2
  • P210:07Gavin Brindley Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (2)1–2
  • P23:54Martin Necas Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (3), Sam Malinski (1)1–1
  • P118:51Thomas Harley Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (3), Nils Lundkvist (2)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P215:22Nathan Bastian Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (1), Miro Heiskanen (1)DAL 2 – 2 COL · DAL 25% → 45% +21
  2. P218:25Jason Robertson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (3), Ilya Lyubushkin (1)DAL 3 – 2 COL · DAL 46% → 69% +23
  3. P30:34Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (4), Martin Necas (2)DAL 3 – 3 COL · COL 29% → 54% +25
  4. P31:58Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 4 – 3 COL · DAL 46% → 71% +25
  5. P310:46Nathan MacKinnon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (3), Brent Burns (1)DAL 4 – 4 COL · COL 19% → 53% +33

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Avalanche 57%

LeanMiss
DAL 43%COL 57%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
COL 57%
ML DAL +125 / COL -145
Pre-line forecast
COL 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
COL 59%
Ratings vs. market
+2.0 pts
COL: Elo 59.1%, market 57.1%
Fair odds
COL -133
DAL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 3.0 – 3.5 COL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALCOLWhy
Team rating15391554Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−5+9DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCOL +64 EloCOL 59.1%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 57.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 57.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCOL 57.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatCOL
3rd of 323.4Goals scored3.43rd of 32
7th of 322.7Goals allowed2.912th of 32
5th of 32+0.6Margin+0.57th of 32
18th of 3249.4%Shot share53.5%5th of 32
4th of 3291.1%Save percentage90.0%16th of 32
25th of 323–7Last 105–514th of 32
7th of 3222–18Road vs home26–1510th of 32
30th of 321497Opponent Elo149731st of 32
6th of 321539Elo rating15543rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsAvalanche
1500155016001650NovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2024-25)DALCOL
Puck line44–5639–50
Last 103–75–5
Favorite33–4431–44
Underdog11–128–6
Overs–unders45–5544–45
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 10–10 COL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.