Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Quinton ByfieldAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists2
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Marco Rossi Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P319:14Adrian Kempe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (2), Drew Doughty (3)3–3
- P36:22Quinton Byfield Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (3), Anze Kopitar (4)2–3
- P33:53Kevin Fiala Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Armia (2), Brandt Clarke (1)1–3
- P116:33Matt Boldy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (3), Joel Eriksson Ek (3)0–3
- P116:13Kirill Kaprizov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (2), Vladimir Tarasenko (2)0–2
- P114:04Jared Spurgeon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (2), Marco Rossi (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:04Jared Spurgeon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (2), Marco Rossi (3)LA 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 48% → 64% +16MIN 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P116:13Kirill Kaprizov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (2), Vladimir Tarasenko (2)LA 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 65% → 79% +14MIN 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P116:33Matt Boldy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (3), Joel Eriksson Ek (3)LA 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 79% → 89% +10MIN 79% → 89%+10 pts
- P36:22Quinton Byfield Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (3), Anze Kopitar (4)LA 2 – 3 MIN · LA 7% → 23% +16LA 7% → 23%+16 pts
- P319:14Adrian Kempe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (2), Drew Doughty (3)LA 3 – 3 MIN · LA <1% → 50% +50LA <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 52%
- ML LA -120 / MIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- LA: Elo 50.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −13 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +3 Elo | LA 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.916th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 48.2%27th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 18th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 22–1918th of 32 |
| 29th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 11th of 321526 | Elo rating | 149817th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  LA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–45 | 45–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–32 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 28–18 |
| Overs–unders | 39–49 | 41–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–2 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.