Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals1
- Andrei KuzmenkoAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals3
- Jack EichelAssists3
- Jack EichelPoints4
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Pavel Dorofeyev Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Trevor Moore Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Adrian Kempe Goal Snap Shot2–1
- P314:00Brandt Clarke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (1), Andrei Kuzmenko (1)5–5
- P311:39Trevor Moore Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (1), Drew Doughty (1)4–5
- P38:43Ivan Barbashev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (3), Mitchell Marner (2)3–5
- P35:06Jack Eichel Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (1), Ivan Barbashev (1)3–4
- P219:14Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (2), Jack Eichel (2)3–3
- P217:32Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (1), Jack Eichel (1)3–2
- P213:41Jeff Malott Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Joel Armia (1), Alex Turcotte (1)3–1
- P22:10Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P111:57Quinton Byfield Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none2–0
- P14:41Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (2), Kevin Fiala (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:41Jeff Malott Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Joel Armia (1), Alex Turcotte (1)LA 3 – 1 VGK · LA 62% → 81% +18LA 62% → 81%+18 pts
- P217:32Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (1), Jack Eichel (1)LA 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 17% → 35% +19VGK 17% → 35%+19 pts
- P219:14Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (2), Jack Eichel (2)LA 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 34% → 59% +24VGK 34% → 59%+24 pts
- P35:06Jack Eichel Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (1), Ivan Barbashev (1)LA 3 – 4 VGK · VGK 57% → 82% +25VGK 57% → 82%+25 pts
- P314:00Brandt Clarke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (1), Andrei Kuzmenko (1)LA 5 – 5 VGK · LA 10% → 45% +35LA 10% → 45%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 64%
- ML LA +170 / VGK -200
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 62.7%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -180
- LA +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.3 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +3 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +90 Elo | VGK 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 64.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 53.7%4th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%12th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 18th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 29–124th of 32 |
| 29th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149924th of 32 |
| 11th of 321525 | Elo rating | 15319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  LA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–45 | 49–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 24–32 | 35–41 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 39–49 | 43–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–3 VGK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.