Los Angeles Kings at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals2
- Gabriel VilardiAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:47Mark Scheifele Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (1), Gabriel Vilardi (3)2–3
- P218:57Mark Scheifele Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Morgan Barron (1)2–2
- P29:12Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Anze Kopitar (3), Andrei Kuzmenko (2)2–1
- P20:50Mikey Anderson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (2), Adrian Kempe (2)1–1
- P14:48Alex Iafallo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (1), Gabriel Vilardi (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:48Alex Iafallo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (1), Gabriel Vilardi (2)LA 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 54% → 69% +14WPG 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P20:50Mikey Anderson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (2), Adrian Kempe (2)LA 1 – 1 WPG · LA 30% → 47% +17LA 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P29:12Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Anze Kopitar (3), Andrei Kuzmenko (2)LA 2 – 1 WPG · LA 47% → 67% +20LA 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P218:57Mark Scheifele Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Morgan Barron (1)LA 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 29% → 53% +24WPG 29% → 53%+24 pts
- P311:47Mark Scheifele Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Josh Morrissey (1), Gabriel Vilardi (3)LA 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 52% → 85% +33WPG 52% → 85%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML LA +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 58.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- LA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +61 Elo | WPG 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.43rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +1.01st of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 50.9%8th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 30–113rd of 32 |
| 30th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149924th of 32 |
| 10th of 321528 | Elo rating | 15523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  LA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–45 | 47–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–32 | 33–37 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 39–49 | 42–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–2 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.