Washington Capitals at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals2
- Jakob ChychrunAssists2
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints3
Islanders- Anthony DuclairGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:28Matthew Schaefer Goal (1) Poke, assists: Kyle Palmieri (2), Bo Horvat (2)4–2
- P218:51Anthony Duclair Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (1), Kyle Palmieri (1)4–1
- P215:30Aliaksei Protas Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–0
- P29:50Ryan Leonard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (3), Aliaksei Protas (2)3–0
- P113:52Aliaksei Protas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (2), Tom Wilson (1)2–0
- P11:50Martin Fehervary Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (1), John Carlson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:50Martin Fehervary Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (1), John Carlson (1)WSH 1 – 0 NYI · WSH 53% → 67% +14WSH 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P113:52Aliaksei Protas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (2), Tom Wilson (1)WSH 2 – 0 NYI · WSH 69% → 82% +13WSH 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P29:50Ryan Leonard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (3), Aliaksei Protas (2)WSH 3 – 0 NYI · WSH 86% → 95% +8WSH 86% → 95%+8 pts
- P215:30Aliaksei Protas Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 4 – 0 NYI · WSH 96% → >99% +3WSH 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P34:28Matthew Schaefer Goal (1) Poke, assists: Kyle Palmieri (2), Bo Horvat (2)WSH 4 – 2 NYI · NYI 1% → 7% +6NYI 1% → 7%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML WSH -125 / NYI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- NYI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 2.7 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +16 Elo | WSH 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 51.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 50.7%11th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3225–16 | Road vs home | 19–2225th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 32 |
| 12th of 321517 | Elo rating | 146728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  WSH |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 51–41 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–28 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 27–13 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–46 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 NYI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.