New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Maxim ShabanovGoals1
- Scott MayfieldAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Penguins- Rickard RakellGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists3
- Evgeni MalkinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:21Justin Brazeau Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (5), Anthony Mantha (2)3–4
- P219:19Max Shabanov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (1)3–3
- P28:58Sidney Crosby Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Evgeni Malkin (4), Rickard Rakell (1)2–3
- P25:41Harrison Brunicke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hallander (1), Thomas Novak (1)2–2
- P24:04Kyle Palmieri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (1), Scott Mayfield (1)2–1
- P112:02Jonathan Drouin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (1)1–1
- P13:23Rickard Rakell Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (3), Sidney Crosby (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:04Kyle Palmieri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (1), Scott Mayfield (1)NYI 2 – 1 PIT · NYI 53% → 71% +18NYI 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P25:41Harrison Brunicke Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Hallander (1), Thomas Novak (1)NYI 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 29% → 47% +18PIT 29% → 47%+18 pts
- P28:58Sidney Crosby Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Evgeni Malkin (4), Rickard Rakell (1)NYI 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 47% → 67% +20PIT 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P219:19Max Shabanov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (1)NYI 3 – 3 PIT · NYI 29% → 53% +24NYI 29% → 53%+24 pts
- P314:21Justin Brazeau Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (5), Anthony Mantha (2)NYI 3 – 4 PIT · PIT 49% → 88% +39PIT 49% → 88%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 54%
- ML NYI -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- NYI: Elo 43.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 2.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +44 Elo | PIT 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 48.5%26th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%29th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3216–25 | Road vs home | 21–2020th of 32 |
| 9th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 27th of 321469 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NYI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–44 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders | 44–38 | 45–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–3 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.