Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Justin BrazeauGoals2
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Justin BrazeauPoints2
RangersScoring summary
- P318:08Blake Lizotte Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (1), Connor Dewar (1)3–0
- P317:48Justin Brazeau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (2), Anthony Mantha (1)2–0
- P119:28Justin Brazeau Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (1)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:28Justin Brazeau Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (1)PIT 1 – 0 NYR · PIT 36% → 53% +17PIT 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P317:48Justin Brazeau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (2), Anthony Mantha (1)PIT 2 – 0 NYR · PIT 97% → >99% +3PIT 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P318:08Blake Lizotte Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (1), Connor Dewar (1)PIT 3 – 0 NYR · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 67%
- ML PIT +195 / NYR -230
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- NYR: Elo 59.6%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -206
- PIT +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.7 – 3.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −1 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +68 Elo | NYR 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%13th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 27th of 3213–28 | Road vs home | 19–2225th of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 26th of 321474 | Elo rating | 151013th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  PIT |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–39 | 33–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 19–35 |
| Underdog | 36–27 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 45–37 | 40–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–5 NYR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.