Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Jake GuentzelPoints1
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists2
- Tom WilsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:19Jakob Chychrun Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (3), Dylan Strome (2)2–3
- P34:56Tom Wilson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Strome (1), John Carlson (2)2–2
- P31:23Brayden Point Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (3), Nikita Kucherov (1)2–1
- P217:38Aliaksei Protas Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (1), Tom Wilson (2)1–1
- P17:06Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (1), Anthony Cirelli (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:06Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (1), Anthony Cirelli (1)TB 1 – 0 WSH · TB 51% → 66% +15TB 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P217:38Aliaksei Protas Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (1), Tom Wilson (2)TB 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 27% → 49% +22WSH 27% → 49%+22 pts
- P31:23Brayden Point Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (3), Nikita Kucherov (1)TB 2 – 1 WSH · TB 51% → 75% +24TB 51% → 75%+24 pts
- P34:56Tom Wilson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Strome (1), John Carlson (2)TB 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 23% → 49% +27WSH 23% → 49%+27 pts
- OT1:19Jakob Chychrun Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (3), Dylan Strome (2)TB 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 50% → 93% +43WSH 50% → 93%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- TB: Elo 45.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.8 – 2.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +32 Elo | WSH 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.030th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.3 | Goals allowed | 1.73rd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.315th of 32 |
| 29th of 3239.9% | Shot share | 48.0%20th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 95.7%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 281–0 | Road vs home | 0–116th of 27 |
| 19th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 148526th of 32 |
| 10th of 321526 | Elo rating | 152311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  TB |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–43 | 51–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–31 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 42–45 | 46–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–3 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.