Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals2
- Jake GuentzelAssists2
- Anthony CirelliPoints2
Bruins- Casey MittelstadtGoals1
- Pavel ZachaAssists2
- Pavel ZachaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P211:35Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (4)4–3
- P25:31Jordan Harris Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (4)4–2
- P23:37Pontus Holmberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (2), Max Crozier (3)4–1
- P21:09Casey Mittelstadt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (1), Pavel Zacha (3)3–1
- P20:39Yanni Gourde Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (1), J.J. Moser (1)3–0
- P113:16Anthony Cirelli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (4), Gage Goncalves (3)2–0
- P11:09Anthony Cirelli Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jake Guentzel (3), Gage Goncalves (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:09Anthony Cirelli Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jake Guentzel (3), Gage Goncalves (2)TB 1 – 0 BOS · TB 60% → 73% +13TB 60% → 73%+13 pts
- P113:16Anthony Cirelli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (4), Gage Goncalves (3)TB 2 – 0 BOS · TB 74% → 85% +12TB 74% → 85%+12 pts
- P20:39Yanni Gourde Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (1), J.J. Moser (1)TB 3 – 0 BOS · TB 87% → 94% +7TB 87% → 94%+7 pts
- P21:09Casey Mittelstadt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (1), Pavel Zacha (3)TB 3 – 1 BOS · BOS 6% → 13% +7BOS 6% → 13%+7 pts
- P211:35Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (4)TB 4 – 3 BOS · BOS 11% → 24% +13BOS 11% → 24%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML TB -165 / BOS +140
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.8 pts
- TB: Elo 47.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- BOS +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −26 | −2 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.65 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +20 Elo | BOS 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.9 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 48.1%28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–23 | Road vs home | 20–2122nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15023rd of 32 |
| 11th of 321524 | Elo rating | 148423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–43 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–31 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders | 42–45 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–3 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.