Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Mattias SamuelssonAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Bruins- Mark KastelicGoals1
- Mark KastelicAssists1
- Mark KastelicPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:57Sean Kuraly Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Elias Lindholm (2), Mark Kastelic (1)1–3
- P39:46Jason Zucker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (1)1–2
- P210:21Mark Kastelic Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (1)0–2
- P115:48Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (1), Andrew Peeke (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:48Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (1), Andrew Peeke (1)BUF 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 50% → 66% +16BOS 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P210:21Mark Kastelic Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (1)BUF 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 70% → 85% +15BOS 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P39:46Jason Zucker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (1)BUF 1 – 2 BOS · BUF 4% → 19% +15BUF 4% → 19%+15 pts
- P319:57Sean Kuraly Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Elias Lindholm (2), Mark Kastelic (1)BUF 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 100% → 100% +0BOS 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML BUF -110 / BOS -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -100
- BUF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +31 Elo | BOS 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 48.1%28th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.2%27th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 26th of 3213–27 | Road vs home | 20–2122nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15033rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321481 | Elo rating | 148124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  BUF |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–39 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 36–22 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders | 48–34 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–3 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.