Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals2
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Matvei MichkovPoints3
Sabres- Ryan McLeodGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists2
- Ryan McLeodPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:41Bobby Brink Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (37), Ryan Poehling (19)4–5
- P319:12Ryan McLeod Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P30:15Tyson Foerster Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Noah Cates (21), Bobby Brink (29)3–4
- P27:11Matvei Michkov Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (30), Travis Konecny (52)2–4
- P21:24JJ Peterka Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (33), Jack Quinn (24)1–4
- P116:11Jack Quinn Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (32), JJ Peterka (41)1–3
- P115:09Matvei Michkov Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (18), Sean Couturier (29)1–2
- P113:49Peyton Krebs Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alex Tuch (31), Connor Clifton (15)0–2
- P14:35Alex Tuch Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Jason Zucker (32), Jacob Bernard-Docker (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:35Alex Tuch Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Jason Zucker (32), Jacob Bernard-Docker (6)PHI 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 60% → 74% +14BUF 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P113:49Peyton Krebs Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alex Tuch (31), Connor Clifton (15)PHI 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 74% → 86% +11BUF 74% → 86%+11 pts
- P115:09Matvei Michkov Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (18), Sean Couturier (29)PHI 1 – 2 BUF · PHI 14% → 26% +12PHI 14% → 26%+12 pts
- P116:11Jack Quinn Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (32), JJ Peterka (41)PHI 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 74% → 86% +12BUF 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P30:15Tyson Foerster Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Noah Cates (21), Bobby Brink (29)PHI 3 – 4 BUF · PHI 8% → 21% +14PHI 8% → 21%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 61%
- ML PHI +145 / BUF -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 61.5%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -154
- PHI +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.6 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | 0 | PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +82 Elo | BUF 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 88.9%30th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 26th of 3213–27 | Road vs home | 22–1715th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–42 | 43–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–16 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 31–26 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40 | 47–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–2 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.