New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- J.T. MillerGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists1
- J.T. MillerPoints2
SabresScoring summary
- P317:25Adam Fox Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (1)4–0
- P317:11J.T. Miller Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (1), Alexis Lafrenière (1)3–0
- P314:46Carson Soucy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (1), J.T. Miller (1)2–0
- P111:43Alexis Lafrenière Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (1), Artemi Panarin (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:43Alexis Lafrenière Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (1), Artemi Panarin (1)NYR 1 – 0 BUF · NYR 52% → 68% +16NYR 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P314:46Carson Soucy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (1), J.T. Miller (1)NYR 2 – 0 BUF · NYR 89% → >99% +10NYR 89% → >99%+10 pts
- P317:11J.T. Miller Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (1), Alexis Lafrenière (1)NYR 3 – 0 BUF · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P317:25Adam Fox Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (1)NYR 4 – 0 BUF · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 52%
- ML NYR -120 / BUF +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 46.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -109
- BUF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +5 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +22 Elo | BUF 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 88.8%30th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–21 | Road vs home | 23–1715th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 32 |
| 14th of 321505 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NYR |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–49 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–35 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 40–42 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–3 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.