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Washington Capitals at New York Rangers, NHL forecast

FinalNHL Net, MNMT, MSG

Away

Capitals

2-1-0

1–0

at

Home

Rangers

2-2-0

WSH 50%NYR 50%

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Madison Square Garden · NHL Net, MNMT, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors NYR.

NYR75%50%75%WSHStartP1P2Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers

    Scoring summary

    • P213:47Anthony Beauvillier Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alex Ovechkin (2), Declan Chisholm (1)1–0

    Turning points

    The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P213:47Anthony Beauvillier Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alex Ovechkin (2), Declan Chisholm (1)WSH 1 – 0 NYR · WSH 50% → 71% +21

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Rangers 50%

    Toss-upMiss
    WSH 50%NYR 50%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    NYR 50%
    ML WSH -110 / NYR -110
    Pre-line forecast
    NYR 56%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    NYR 55%
    Ratings vs. market
    +4.8 pts
    NYR: Elo 54.8%, market 50.0%
    Fair odds
    NYR -100
    WSH -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    WSH 3.3 – 3.3 NYR
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorWSHNYRWhy
    Team rating15211516Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Rest−30−30NYR and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back
    Starting goalies−9−6WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsNYR +33 EloNYR 54.8%
    Market-implied ratingsNYR 56.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastNYR 55.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastNYR 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Washington Capitals and New York Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
    WSHStatNYR
    2nd of 323.5Goals scored3.112th of 32
    9th of 322.8Goals allowed3.119th of 32
    3rd of 32+0.7Margin0.016th of 32
    14th of 3250.4%Shot share48.9%22nd of 32
    15th of 3290.0%Save percentage90.2%13th of 32
    22nd of 324–6Last 105–514th of 32
    2nd of 3225–16Road vs home19–2225th of 32
    22nd of 321499Opponent Elo149921st of 32
    12th of 321521Elo rating151613th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    CapitalsRangers
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    Last season (2024-25)WSHNYR
    Puck line51–4133–49
    Last 105–54–6
    Favorite24–2819–35
    Underdog27–1314–14
    Overs–unders46–4640–42
    Overs–unders, last 103–78–2

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    WSH 5–6 NYR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.