New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adam FoxGoals2
- Adam EdstromAssists2
- Adam FoxPoints3
Penguins- Ben KindelGoals1
- Caleb JonesAssists1
- Ben KindelPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:12Taylor Raddysh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Laba (2), Juuso Parssinen (1)6–1
- P35:40Matt Rempe Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Adam Edstrom (2), Sam Carrick (3)5–1
- P216:38Adam Fox Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (2), J.T. Miller (2)4–1
- P29:25Will Cuylle Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Conor Sheary (1), Noah Laba (1)3–1
- P26:06Adam Fox Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Edstrom (1)2–1
- P23:04Ben Kindel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Caleb Jones (1)1–1
- P17:40Mika Zibanejad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (2), Adam Fox (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:40Mika Zibanejad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (2), Adam Fox (1)NYR 1 – 0 PIT · NYR 56% → 70% +15NYR 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P23:04Ben Kindel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Caleb Jones (1)NYR 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 28% → 45% +17PIT 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P26:06Adam Fox Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Edstrom (1)NYR 2 – 1 PIT · NYR 55% → 73% +18NYR 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P29:25Will Cuylle Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Conor Sheary (1), Noah Laba (1)NYR 3 – 1 PIT · NYR 73% → 87% +14NYR 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P216:38Adam Fox Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (2), J.T. Miller (2)NYR 4 – 1 PIT · NYR 90% → 97% +7NYR 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 56%
- ML NYR -140 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- NYR: Elo 48.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -128
- PIT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 2.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +8 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +13 Elo | PIT 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 48.5%26th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.1%29th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–21 | Road vs home | 21–2020th of 32 |
| 21st of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 13th of 321510 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NYR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–49 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–35 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders | 40–42 | 45–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 5–3 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.