Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Marcus JohanssonPoints1
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals2
- Dylan StromeAssists2
- Dylan StromePoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:03Tom Wilson Goal (3) Deflected, assists: John Carlson (3), Dylan Strome (4)1–5
- P311:32Dylan Strome Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (1), Martin Fehervary (2)1–4
- P31:19Alex Ovechkin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (3)1–3
- P217:18Aliaksei Protas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (4), Rasmus Sandin (1)1–2
- P216:47Marcus Johansson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (5), Jake Middleton (1)1–1
- P117:52Dylan Strome Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Alex Ovechkin (3), Martin Fehervary (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:52Dylan Strome Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Alex Ovechkin (3), Martin Fehervary (1)MIN 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 53% → 69% +17WSH 53% → 69%+17 pts
- P216:47Marcus Johansson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (5), Jake Middleton (1)MIN 1 – 1 WSH · MIN 26% → 48% +22MIN 26% → 48%+22 pts
- P217:18Aliaksei Protas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (4), Rasmus Sandin (1)MIN 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 52% → 74% +22WSH 52% → 74%+22 pts
- P31:19Alex Ovechkin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (3)MIN 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 76% → 91% +15WSH 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P311:32Dylan Strome Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (1), Martin Fehervary (2)MIN 1 – 4 WSH · WSH 98% → >99% +2WSH 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML MIN +105 / WSH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.7 – 2.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +67 Elo | WSH 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.329th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 1.82nd of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.510th of 32 |
| 6th of 3254.5% | Shot share | 50.4%17th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 94.6%2nd of 32 |
| 13th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 1–110th of 32 |
| 9th of 321517 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321497 | Elo rating | 15269th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–43 | 51–41 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–25 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 28–18 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 41–47 | 46–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.