Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints2
Blue Jackets- Ivan ProvorovGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Ivan ProvorovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:07Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (1), Cale Makar (5)4–1
- P219:56Valeri Nichushkin Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (2), Victor Olofsson (3)3–1
- P211:46Brock Nelson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (3), Josh Manson (1)2–1
- P210:34Cale Makar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (6), Artturi Lehkonen (2)1–1
- P21:36Ivan Provorov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:36Ivan Provorov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (1)COL 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 41% → 59% +18CBJ 41% → 59%+18 pts
- P210:34Cale Makar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (6), Artturi Lehkonen (2)COL 1 – 1 CBJ · COL 37% → 58% +21COL 37% → 58%+21 pts
- P211:46Brock Nelson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (3), Josh Manson (1)COL 2 – 1 CBJ · COL 57% → 76% +19COL 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P219:56Valeri Nichushkin Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (2), Victor Olofsson (3)COL 3 – 1 CBJ · COL 78% → 92% +14COL 78% → 92%+14 pts
- P318:07Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (1), Cale Makar (5)COL 4 – 1 CBJ · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML COL -170 / CBJ +145
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- COL: Elo 56.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -154
- CBJ +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 2.9 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −11 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +43 Elo | COL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.0 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.3 | Margin | +0.314th of 32 |
| 11th of 3253.8% | Shot share | 48.1%20th of 32 |
| 4th of 3293.5% | Save percentage | 92.8%5th of 32 |
| 1st of 312–0 | Road vs home | 0–122nd of 31 |
| 10th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 148625th of 32 |
| 4th of 321554 | Elo rating | 149418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  COL |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–50 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–44 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 44–45 | 46–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–2 CBJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.