Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P211:59Nathan MacKinnon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (5), Cale Makar (4)3–1
- P24:32Cale Makar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (1)2–1
- P116:32Tage Thompson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (1), Rasmus Dahlin (1)1–1
- P13:14Nathan MacKinnon Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Martin Necas (4), Brent Burns (2)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:14Nathan MacKinnon Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Martin Necas (4), Brent Burns (2)COL 1 – 0 BUF · COL 61% → 74% +13COL 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P116:32Tage Thompson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (1), Rasmus Dahlin (1)COL 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 25% → 40% +15BUF 25% → 40%+15 pts
- P24:32Cale Makar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (1)COL 2 – 1 BUF · COL 59% → 76% +17COL 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P211:59Nathan MacKinnon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (5), Cale Makar (4)COL 3 – 1 BUF · COL 77% → 90% +13COL 77% → 90%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML COL -175 / BUF +150
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- COL: Elo 55.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -159
- BUF +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 2.9 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +41 Elo | COL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.8%30th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 4th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 23–1715th of 32 |
| 31st of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 32 |
| 4th of 321551 | Elo rating | 147725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  COL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–50 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 31–44 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 44–45 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–1 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.