Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Ben MeyersAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists2
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:10Tom Wilson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (1), Aliaksei Protas (4)1–4
- P33:50Jaden Schwartz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Meyers (1)1–3
- P21:33Jakob Chychrun Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (4), Dylan Strome (7)0–3
- P20:25Ryan Leonard Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (3), Martin Fehervary (3)0–2
- P18:30Nic Dowd Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (4), Brandon Duhaime (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:30Nic Dowd Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (4), Brandon Duhaime (1)SEA 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 69% → 82% +12WSH 69% → 82%+12 pts
- P20:25Ryan Leonard Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (3), Martin Fehervary (3)SEA 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 81% → 91% +10WSH 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P21:33Jakob Chychrun Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (4), Dylan Strome (7)SEA 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 91% → 96% +5WSH 91% → 96%+5 pts
- P33:50Jaden Schwartz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Meyers (1)SEA 1 – 3 WSH · SEA <1% → 5% +4SEA <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P319:10Tom Wilson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (1), Aliaksei Protas (4)SEA 1 – 4 WSH · WSH >99% → 100% +0WSH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 71%
- ML SEA +230 / WSH -280
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 67.8%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -243
- SEA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.1 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +5 | SEA: Matt Murray: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +129 Elo | WSH 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 64.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.820th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.03rd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.86th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 55.9%4th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 92.6%4th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 32 |
| 19th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 32 |
| 24th of 321477 | Elo rating | 15279th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–3 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.