Seattle Kraken at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Chandler StephensonGoals2
- Brandon MontourAssists2
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Senators- Shane PintoGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists2
- Claude GirouxPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Shane Pinto Goal Snap Shot0–2
- SO0:00Tim Stützle Goal Snap Shot0–2
- P318:14Dylan Cozens Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (1), Jordan Spence (4)3–3
- P32:15Chandler Stephenson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (3), Brandon Montour (4)3–2
- P24:40Chandler Stephenson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (2)2–2
- P19:35David Perron Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (3), Thomas Chabot (1)1–2
- P17:42Shane Pinto Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (1), Claude Giroux (2)1–1
- P14:57Shane Wright Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brandon Montour (3), Mason Marchment (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:57Shane Wright Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brandon Montour (3), Mason Marchment (1)SEA 1 – 0 OTT · SEA 41% → 56% +15SEA 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P17:42Shane Pinto Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (1), Claude Giroux (2)SEA 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 43% → 59% +15OTT 43% → 59%+15 pts
- P24:40Chandler Stephenson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (2)SEA 2 – 2 OTT · SEA 26% → 43% +17SEA 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P32:15Chandler Stephenson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (3), Brandon Montour (4)SEA 3 – 2 OTT · SEA 45% → 71% +26SEA 45% → 71%+26 pts
- P318:14Dylan Cozens Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (1), Jordan Spence (4)SEA 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 2% → 52% +50OTT 2% → 52%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 59%
- ML SEA +135 / OTT -160
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- OTT: Elo 54.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -145
- SEA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −5 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +32 Elo | OTT 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 5.532nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −2.532nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3246.9% | Shot share | 55.5%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 81.4%32nd of 32 |
| 25th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 0–122nd of 31 |
| 21st of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 150915th of 32 |
| 24th of 321481 | Elo rating | 149517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  SEA |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–39 | 37–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 14–38 |
| Underdog | 33–24 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 42–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–3 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.