Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals2
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints2
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Jake SandersonAssists1
- Ridly GreigPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:48Cole Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (2)4–1
- P319:06Jonathan Marchessault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (2)3–1
- P317:57Ridly Greig Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Dylan Cozens (1), Jake Sanderson (3)2–1
- P314:38Ryan O'Reilly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (1), Filip Forsberg (2)2–0
- P212:11Jonathan Marchessault Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (1), Erik Haula (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:11Jonathan Marchessault Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (1), Erik Haula (2)NSH 1 – 0 OTT · NSH 42% → 63% +21NSH 42% → 63%+21 pts
- P314:38Ryan O'Reilly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (1), Filip Forsberg (2)NSH 2 – 0 OTT · NSH 87% → >99% +12NSH 87% → >99%+12 pts
- P317:57Ridly Greig Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Dylan Cozens (1), Jake Sanderson (3)NSH 2 – 1 OTT · OTT <1% → 3% +3OTT <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P319:06Jonathan Marchessault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (2)NSH 3 – 1 OTT · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:48Cole Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (2)NSH 4 – 1 OTT · NSH 100% → 100% +0NSH 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 62%
- ML NSH +155 / OTT -185
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 60.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -166
- NSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.4 – 3.1 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +72 Elo | OTT 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 50.6%12th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 30th of 3210–31 | Road vs home | 27–147th of 32 |
| 7th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 27th of 321466 | Elo rating | 150614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NSH |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–49 | 37–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–30 | 14–38 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 42–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–3 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.