Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals2
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Shane PintoPoints2
Panthers- Aaron EkbladGoals1
- Gustav ForslingAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:35Shane Pinto Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (1)2–6
- P311:14Sam Reinhart Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (3)1–6
- P35:29Mackie Samoskevich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (1)1–5
- P218:28Anton Lundell Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Petry (2), Carter Verhaeghe (1)1–4
- P20:35Aaron Ekblad Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (1), Seth Jones (2)1–3
- P117:33Shane Pinto Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (1)1–2
- P19:54Evan Rodrigues Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (1)0–2
- P16:08Brad Marchand Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Seth Jones (1), Gustav Forsling (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:08Brad Marchand Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Seth Jones (1), Gustav Forsling (2)OTT 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 58% → 72% +14FLA 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P19:54Evan Rodrigues Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (1)OTT 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 72% → 84% +12FLA 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P117:33Shane Pinto Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (1)OTT 1 – 2 FLA · OTT 15% → 27% +12OTT 15% → 27%+12 pts
- P20:35Aaron Ekblad Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (1), Seth Jones (2)OTT 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 73% → 86% +13FLA 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P218:28Anton Lundell Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Petry (2), Carter Verhaeghe (1)OTT 1 – 4 FLA · FLA 91% → 97% +6FLA 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 58%
- ML OTT +130 / FLA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 63.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -138
- OTT +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +99 Elo | FLA 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 62.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 54.6%2nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 15th of 3218–23 | Road vs home | 26–149th of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149827th of 32 |
| 14th of 321510 | Elo rating | 15711st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  OTT |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–51 | 53–52 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 14–38 | 36–48 |
| Underdog | 23–13 | 17–4 |
| Overs–unders | 42–46 | 54–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–5 FLA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.