Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals1
- Tyson FoersterAssists1
- Noah CatesPoints1
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals1
- A.J. GreerAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:19Brad Marchand Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (1), A.J. Greer (1)1–2
- P217:48Noah Cates Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (1)1–1
- P25:29Anton Lundell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (2), Jeff Petry (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:29Anton Lundell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (2), Jeff Petry (1)PHI 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 63% → 79% +16FLA 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P217:48Noah Cates Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (1)PHI 1 – 1 FLA · PHI 19% → 39% +20PHI 19% → 39%+20 pts
- P32:19Brad Marchand Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (1), A.J. Greer (1)PHI 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 60% → 82% +22FLA 60% → 82%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 67%
- ML PHI +195 / FLA -230
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- FLA: Elo 69.8%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -206
- PHI +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.2 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +2 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +145 Elo | FLA 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 70.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.410th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 54.6%2nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 27th of 3213–28 | Road vs home | 26–149th of 32 |
| 7th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149826th of 32 |
| 29th of 321455 | Elo rating | 15701st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  PHI |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–42 | 53–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–16 | 36–48 |
| Underdog | 32–26 | 17–4 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 54–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–3 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.