Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Beckett SenneckeGoals1
- Mason McTavishAssists1
- Beckett SenneckePoints1
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:25Jared McCann Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (1), Jordan Eberle (1)1–3
- P23:50Mason Marchment Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (1)1–2
- P14:11Beckett Sennecke Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Mason McTavish (1)1–1
- P12:21Vince Dunn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (1), Jaden Schwartz (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:21Vince Dunn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (1), Jaden Schwartz (1)ANA 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 53% → 67% +14SEA 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P14:11Beckett Sennecke Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Mason McTavish (1)ANA 1 – 1 SEA · ANA 32% → 47% +14ANA 32% → 47%+14 pts
- P23:50Mason Marchment Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (1)ANA 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 53% → 70% +18SEA 53% → 70%+18 pts
- P34:25Jared McCann Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (1), Jordan Eberle (1)ANA 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 78% → 93% +15SEA 78% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML ANA +105 / SEA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- ANA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.2 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +60 Elo | SEA 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%20th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 24th of 3214–27 | Road vs home | 18–2328th of 32 |
| 4th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 29th of 321454 | Elo rating | 147726th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  ANA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 55–27 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 51–24 | 33–24 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–5 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.