Vegas Golden Knights at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints1
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists2
- Matty BeniersPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:56Jared McCann Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (2), Vince Dunn (2)1–2
- P34:11Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (5), Jack Eichel (5)1–1
- P27:58Matty Beniers Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jordan Eberle (2), Vince Dunn (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:58Matty Beniers Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jordan Eberle (2), Vince Dunn (1)VGK 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 42% → 61% +20SEA 42% → 61%+20 pts
- P34:11Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (5), Jack Eichel (5)VGK 1 – 1 SEA · VGK 29% → 56% +27VGK 29% → 56%+27 pts
- OT4:56Jared McCann Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (2), Vince Dunn (2)VGK 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 50% → 100% +50SEA 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 61%
- ML VGK -175 / SEA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 52.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -159
- SEA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.1 – 2.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +14 Elo | VGK 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.6%20th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 9th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 18–2328th of 32 |
| 24th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 8th of 321530 | Elo rating | 148024th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  VGK |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–44 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–41 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 14–3 | 33–24 |
| Overs–unders | 43–50 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 5–2 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.