Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints2
Sharks- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Shakir MukhamadullinAssists2
- Shakir MukhamadullinPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:24Reilly Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (1)4–3
- P318:26Jack Eichel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (4), Tomas Hertl (1)3–3
- P32:59Philipp Kurashev Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (1), Shakir Mukhamadullin (2)2–3
- P214:22Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (3), Jack Eichel (4)2–2
- P26:59Alexander Wennberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (1), John Klingberg (1)1–2
- P18:09Brett Howden Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (1), Ben Hutton (1)1–1
- P15:31Jeff Skinner Goal (1) Batted, assists: Ty Dellandrea (1), Shakir Mukhamadullin (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:59Alexander Wennberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (1), John Klingberg (1)VGK 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 39% → 58% +19SJ 39% → 58%+19 pts
- P214:22Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (3), Jack Eichel (4)VGK 2 – 2 SJ · VGK 38% → 60% +22VGK 38% → 60%+22 pts
- P32:59Philipp Kurashev Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (1), Shakir Mukhamadullin (2)VGK 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 42% → 68% +27SJ 42% → 68%+27 pts
- P318:26Jack Eichel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (4), Tomas Hertl (1)VGK 3 – 3 SJ · VGK 1% → 52% +51VGK 1% → 52%+51 pts
- OT1:24Reilly Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (1)VGK 4 – 3 SJ · VGK 54% → 94% +41VGK 54% → 94%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 65%
- ML VGK -210 / SJ +175
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 55.0%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -186
- SJ +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.7 – 2.8 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −28 | +10 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.70 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +35 Elo | VGK 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −1.332nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 45.8%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 0–1032nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3221–20 | Road vs home | 12–2932nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15041st of 32 |
| 9th of 321528 | Elo rating | 139032nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  VGK |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 49–44 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–41 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 14–3 | 48–33 |
| Overs–unders | 43–50 | 39–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 7–0 SJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.