Seattle Kraken at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints2
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Ivan DemidovAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:25Cole Caufield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (2), Nick Suzuki (6)4–5
- P317:19Ivan Demidov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Patrik Laine (1), Brendan Gallagher (4)4–4
- P37:56Jared McCann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (2), Ryan Lindgren (1)4–3
- P34:48Jamie Oleksiak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (1), Josh Mahura (1)3–3
- P31:12Kirby Dach Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Noah Dobson (2), Mike Matheson (2)2–3
- P217:52Jani Nyman Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tye Kartye (1), Freddy Gaudreau (1)2–2
- P27:12Cole Caufield Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P23:33Jaden Schwartz Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (1), Vince Dunn (3)1–1
- P14:37Alex Newhook Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Demidov (2), Alexandre Carrier (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:12Kirby Dach Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Noah Dobson (2), Mike Matheson (2)SEA 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 55% → 78% +23MTL 55% → 78%+23 pts
- P34:48Jamie Oleksiak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (1), Josh Mahura (1)SEA 3 – 3 MTL · SEA 20% → 46% +25SEA 20% → 46%+25 pts
- P37:56Jared McCann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (2), Ryan Lindgren (1)SEA 4 – 3 MTL · SEA 46% → 76% +30SEA 46% → 76%+30 pts
- P317:19Ivan Demidov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Patrik Laine (1), Brendan Gallagher (4)SEA 4 – 4 MTL · MTL 5% → 52% +47MTL 5% → 52%+47 pts
- OT3:25Cole Caufield Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (2), Nick Suzuki (6)SEA 4 – 5 MTL · MTL 51% → 99% +47MTL 51% → 99%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 59%
- ML SEA +135 / MTL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- MTL: Elo 54.9%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MTL -143
- SEA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | 0 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +34 Elo | MTL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.9% | Shot share | 46.8%29th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 23–1816th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321483 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  SEA |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–39 | 50–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 33–24 | 46–27 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 46–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–2 MTL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.