Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Jake SandersonGoals1
- Jordan SpenceAssists3
- Jordan SpencePoints3
Sabres- Ryan McLeodGoals2
- Zach BensonAssists4
- Zach BensonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:44Jiri Kulich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (2), Zach Benson (4)4–8
- P33:17Jack Quinn Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Peyton Krebs (1), Zach Benson (3)4–7
- P32:32Ryan McLeod Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (2), Josh Doan (3)4–6
- P32:15Lars Eller Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (1), Jordan Spence (3)4–5
- P30:40Shane Pinto Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (2), Jake Sanderson (4)3–5
- P213:43Jason Zucker Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Josh Doan (2), Tage Thompson (1)2–5
- P211:46Jason Zucker Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (3), Zach Benson (2)2–4
- P210:17Alex Tuch Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (1), Josh Doan (1)2–3
- P26:46Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (1), Owen Power (1)2–2
- P23:58Jake Sanderson Goal (1) Poke, assists: Ridly Greig (2), Dylan Cozens (2)2–1
- P116:09Tim Stützle Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (1), Jordan Spence (1)1–1
- P18:01Jack Quinn Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (1), Rasmus Dahlin (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:09Tim Stützle Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (1), Jordan Spence (1)OTT 1 – 1 BUF · OTT 35% → 52% +17OTT 35% → 52%+17 pts
- P23:58Jake Sanderson Goal (1) Poke, assists: Ridly Greig (2), Dylan Cozens (2)OTT 2 – 1 BUF · OTT 52% → 70% +18OTT 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P26:46Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (1), Owen Power (1)OTT 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 30% → 48% +19BUF 30% → 48%+19 pts
- P210:17Alex Tuch Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (1), Josh Doan (1)OTT 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 48% → 68% +20BUF 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P32:32Ryan McLeod Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (2), Josh Doan (3)OTT 4 – 6 BUF · BUF 74% → 91% +17BUF 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 52%
- ML OTT -120 / BUF +100
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- OTT: Elo 50.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -109
- BUF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +18 | +3 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.44 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +6 Elo | OTT 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.7 | Goals scored | 0.732nd of 32 |
| 31st of 324.7 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−2.0 | Margin | −2.732nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3254.7% | Shot share | 46.3%24th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3284.2% | Save percentage | 91.9%7th of 32 |
| 14th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 0–220th of 30 |
| 8th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 151511th of 32 |
| 14th of 321500 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  OTT |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–51 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–38 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 23–13 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 42–46 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–6 BUF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.