Seattle Kraken at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists2
- Shane WrightPoints2
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals2
- William NylanderAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:06Josh Mahura Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (4), Chandler Stephenson (2)4–3
- P31:21John Tavares Goal (3) Backhand, assists: William Nylander (9)3–3
- P217:44Vince Dunn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (1), Chandler Stephenson (1)3–2
- P216:01John Tavares Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (8)2–2
- P214:19Jani Nyman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (3), Shane Wright (2)2–1
- P114:56Morgan Rielly Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (2), Matthew Knies (6)1–1
- P17:29Shane Wright Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (3), Mason Marchment (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P214:19Jani Nyman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (3), Shane Wright (2)SEA 2 – 1 TOR · SEA 41% → 62% +22SEA 41% → 62%+22 pts
- P216:01John Tavares Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (8)SEA 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 36% → 59% +23TOR 36% → 59%+23 pts
- P217:44Vince Dunn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (1), Chandler Stephenson (1)SEA 3 – 2 TOR · SEA 41% → 65% +23SEA 41% → 65%+23 pts
- P31:21John Tavares Goal (3) Backhand, assists: William Nylander (9)SEA 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 33% → 58% +25TOR 33% → 58%+25 pts
- OT3:06Josh Mahura Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (4), Chandler Stephenson (2)SEA 4 – 3 TOR · SEA 47% → 98% +50SEA 47% → 98%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML SEA +170 / TOR -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 64.2%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -180
- SEA +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.8 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +12 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +101 Elo | TOR 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 64.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.610th of 32 |
| 19th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 50.4%17th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 27th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149520th of 32 |
| 25th of 321478 | Elo rating | 15387th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  SEA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–39 | 48–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 33–24 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 41–41 | 49–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–4 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.