New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Juuso ParssinenGoals1
- Braden SchneiderAssists1
- Juuso ParssinenPoints1
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- William NylanderAssists2
- William NylanderPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:58Auston Matthews Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (7), Morgan Rielly (4)1–2
- P34:51Juuso Parssinen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (2)1–1
- P111:48Matthew Knies Goal (2) Deflected, assists: William Nylander (6), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:48Matthew Knies Goal (2) Deflected, assists: William Nylander (6), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3)NYR 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 57% → 72% +15TOR 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P34:51Juuso Parssinen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (2)NYR 1 – 1 TOR · NYR 21% → 46% +26NYR 21% → 46%+26 pts
- OT0:58Auston Matthews Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: William Nylander (7), Morgan Rielly (4)NYR 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 52% → 93% +41TOR 52% → 93%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML NYR +125 / TOR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -135
- NYR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.5 – 3.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +11 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +68 Elo | TOR 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.0 | Goals scored | 4.33rd of 32 |
| 1st of 321.4 | Goals allowed | 3.823rd of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.512th of 32 |
| 10th of 3254.1% | Shot share | 51.5%14th of 32 |
| 1st of 3296.9% | Save percentage | 88.1%23rd of 32 |
| 1st of 312–0 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 31 |
| 17th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 32 |
| 13th of 321510 | Elo rating | 15367th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NYR |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–49 | 48–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–35 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 40–42 | 49–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 2–4 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.