Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Adam HenriqueGoals1
- Kasperi KapanenAssists1
- Adam HenriquePoints1
RangersScoring summary
- P318:52Adam Henrique Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (4), Andrew Mangiapane (1)2–0
- P210:22Trent Frederic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (2)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:22Trent Frederic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (2)EDM 1 – 0 NYR · EDM 54% → 73% +19EDM 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P318:52Adam Henrique Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (4), Andrew Mangiapane (1)EDM 2 – 0 NYR · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 55%
- ML EDM -135 / NYR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 49.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -124
- NYR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 2.6 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +3 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +3 Elo | NYR 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.2%13th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 4th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 19–2225th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 4th of 321553 | Elo rating | 151413th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  EDM |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–62 | 33–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–54 | 19–35 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 50–54 | 40–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–1 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.