Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Calle JarnkrokGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists2
- Morgan RiellyPoints2
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals2
- Alex DeBrincatAssists3
- Patrick KanePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:55Andrew Copp Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P318:12Simon Edvinsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cameron Talbot (1)3–5
- P36:45Lucas Raymond Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Patrick Kane (3), Alex DeBrincat (3)3–4
- P32:38Max Domi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (3)3–3
- P218:10Patrick Kane Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (2), Albert Johansson (1)2–3
- P214:55Lucas Raymond Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (1), Emmitt Finnie (1)2–2
- P28:56Marco Kasper Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (2), Alex DeBrincat (1)2–1
- P112:29Nicolas Roy Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (2), William Nylander (3)2–0
- P12:27Calle Jarnkrok Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (1), Chris Tanev (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:27Calle Jarnkrok Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (1), Chris Tanev (1)TOR 1 – 0 DET · TOR 57% → 71% +14TOR 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P214:55Lucas Raymond Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (1), Emmitt Finnie (1)TOR 2 – 2 DET · DET 25% → 45% +21DET 25% → 45%+21 pts
- P218:10Patrick Kane Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (2), Albert Johansson (1)TOR 2 – 3 DET · DET 46% → 69% +23DET 46% → 69%+23 pts
- P32:38Max Domi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (3)TOR 3 – 3 DET · TOR 28% → 54% +26TOR 28% → 54%+26 pts
- P36:45Lucas Raymond Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Patrick Kane (3), Alex DeBrincat (3)TOR 3 – 4 DET · DET 47% → 76% +29DET 47% → 76%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML TOR -145 / DET +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 3.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +2 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 48.9%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.6%21st of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3225–16 | Road vs home | 22–1918th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 32 |
| 5th of 321540 | Elo rating | 149019th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–47 | 48–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–37 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 23–10 | 41–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–46 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–3 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.