Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Nick PerbixGoals1
- Ozzy WiesblattAssists2
- Nick PerbixPoints2
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- Matthew KniesAssists3
- John TavaresPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:36William Nylander Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (5), Jake McCabe (1)4–7
- P318:49Nick Perbix Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (2), Ozzy Wiesblatt (2)4–6
- P316:50Auston Matthews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (4), Matthew Knies (4)3–6
- P316:06Roman Josi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (1), Jonathan Marchessault (2)3–5
- P310:42Auston Matthews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (3), Easton Cowan (1)2–5
- P216:24Bobby McMann Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (1), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (2)2–4
- P28:49John Tavares Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (5), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1)2–3
- P24:05Erik Haula Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ozzy Wiesblatt (1)2–2
- P23:21Michael McCarron Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (1), Nick Perbix (1)1–2
- P113:34Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (4), Simon Benoit (1)0–2
- P18:42Jake McCabe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (1), John Tavares (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:42Jake McCabe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (1), John Tavares (3)NSH 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 61% → 75% +14TOR 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P23:21Michael McCarron Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (1), Nick Perbix (1)NSH 1 – 2 TOR · NSH 12% → 24% +12NSH 12% → 24%+12 pts
- P24:05Erik Haula Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ozzy Wiesblatt (1)NSH 2 – 2 TOR · NSH 24% → 41% +17NSH 24% → 41%+17 pts
- P28:49John Tavares Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (5), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1)NSH 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 58% → 76% +18TOR 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P216:24Bobby McMann Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (1), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (2)NSH 2 – 4 TOR · TOR 78% → 91% +13TOR 78% → 91%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML NSH +150 / TOR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -159
- NSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −39 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · TOR: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.98 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +31 Elo | TOR 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321.7 | Goals allowed | 3.722nd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3246.3% | Shot share | 52.6%13th of 32 |
| 4th of 3294.7% | Save percentage | 88.6%19th of 32 |
| 1st of 281–0 | Road vs home | 1–16th of 27 |
| 15th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149517th of 32 |
| 27th of 321472 | Elo rating | 15327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–49 | 48–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–30 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–49 | 49–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.