Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- Ben ChiarotAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints1
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- Matthew KniesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:15Mason Appleton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (1), Emmitt Finnie (2)3–2
- P313:42Calle Jarnkrok Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (1), Matthew Knies (2)2–2
- P37:29Matthew Knies Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Bobby McMann (1)2–1
- P34:25James van Riemsdyk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (1)2–0
- P118:55Dylan Larkin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (4), Lucas Raymond (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:55Dylan Larkin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (4), Lucas Raymond (1)DET 1 – 0 TOR · DET 43% → 60% +17DET 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P34:25James van Riemsdyk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Copp (1)DET 2 – 0 TOR · DET 73% → 91% +18DET 73% → 91%+18 pts
- P37:29Matthew Knies Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Bobby McMann (1)DET 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 7% → 24% +18TOR 7% → 24%+18 pts
- P313:42Calle Jarnkrok Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (1), Matthew Knies (2)DET 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 15% → 53% +38TOR 15% → 53%+38 pts
- P319:15Mason Appleton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (1), Emmitt Finnie (2)DET 3 – 2 TOR · DET 49% → >99% +51DET 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML DET +135 / TOR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.4%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- TOR -143
- DET +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +9 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +81 Elo | TOR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 18th of 3217–24 | Road vs home | 27–147th of 32 |
| 10th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 19th of 321495 | Elo rating | 15357th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–34 | 48–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 41–20 | 23–10 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 49–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–4 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.