Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals2
- Cam YorkAssists3
- Cam YorkPoints3
Scoring summary
- P215:40Owen Tippett Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (5), Cam York (3)2–5
- P28:33Jani Nyman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (3), Chandler Stephenson (3)2–4
- P25:32Noah Cates Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cam York (2), Trevor Zegras (5)1–4
- P24:59Travis Konecny Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (1), Matvei Michkov (1)1–3
- P113:19Tyson Foerster Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (2), Cam York (1)1–2
- P19:56Owen Tippett Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (2), Sean Couturier (4)1–1
- P17:16Jordan Eberle Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Cale Fleury (1), Berkly Catton (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:16Jordan Eberle Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Cale Fleury (1), Berkly Catton (1)SEA 1 – 0 PHI · SEA 44% → 60% +15SEA 44% → 60%+15 pts
- P19:56Owen Tippett Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (2), Sean Couturier (4)SEA 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 40% → 56% +16PHI 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P113:19Tyson Foerster Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (2), Cam York (1)SEA 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 55% → 71% +15PHI 55% → 71%+15 pts
- P24:59Travis Konecny Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (1), Matvei Michkov (1)SEA 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 72% → 86% +13PHI 72% → 86%+13 pts
- P25:32Noah Cates Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cam York (2), Trevor Zegras (5)SEA 1 – 4 PHI · PHI 86% → 94% +8PHI 86% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML SEA +120 / PHI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -128
- SEA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +9 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +15 Elo | PHI 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.625th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 44.2%28th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 16th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15431st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321482 | Elo rating | 145629th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.