Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Noah CatesAssists1
- Travis SanheimPoints1
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:43Seth Jarvis Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (3)3–4
- P316:00Travis Sanheim Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (1), Tyson Foerster (2)3–3
- P218:30Jordan Staal Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (2)2–3
- P29:07Taylor Hall Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Eric Robinson (1)2–2
- P26:18Bobby Brink Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (1), Nikita Grebenkin (1)2–1
- P23:46Logan Stankoven Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (2), Alexander Nikishin (2)1–1
- P119:38Owen Tippett Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (1), Trevor Zegras (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:18Bobby Brink Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (1), Nikita Grebenkin (1)PHI 2 – 1 CAR · PHI 33% → 52% +19PHI 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P29:07Taylor Hall Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Eric Robinson (1)PHI 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 47% → 67% +20CAR 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P218:30Jordan Staal Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (2)PHI 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 64% → 83% +19CAR 64% → 83%+19 pts
- P316:00Travis Sanheim Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (1), Tyson Foerster (2)PHI 3 – 3 CAR · PHI 6% → 44% +38PHI 6% → 44%+38 pts
- OT4:43Seth Jarvis Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (3), Shayne Gostisbehere (3)PHI 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 52% → >99% +48CAR 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 72%
- ML PHI +250 / CAR -300
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 66.4%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -263
- PHI +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.1 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | 0 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +118 Elo | CAR 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 69.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 27th of 3213–28 | Road vs home | 31–101st of 32 |
| 8th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149925th of 32 |
| 29th of 321454 | Elo rating | 15396th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  PHI |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–42 | 44–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–16 | 40–46 |
| Underdog | 32–26 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 42–40 | 43–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–6 CAR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.