Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals1
- Jonas BrodinAssists1
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints1
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:37Noah Cates Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (3), Jamie Drysdale (2)1–2
- P37:10Owen Tippett Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (4), Christian Dvorak (1)1–1
- P21:55Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (4), Jonas Brodin (1)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:55Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (4), Jonas Brodin (1)MIN 1 – 0 PHI · MIN 48% → 66% +18MIN 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P37:10Owen Tippett Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (4), Christian Dvorak (1)MIN 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 22% → 51% +29PHI 22% → 51%+29 pts
- OT2:37Noah Cates Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (3), Jamie Drysdale (2)MIN 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 50% → 97% +46PHI 50% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML MIN +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.2 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +7 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +44 Elo | PHI 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.0 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.521st of 32 |
| 20th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 41.8%31st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%21st of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 32 |
| 8th of 321520 | Opponent Elo | 15551st of 32 |
| 19th of 321493 | Elo rating | 145429th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MIN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–43 | 40–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–25 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 28–18 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders | 41–47 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.