Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Sam ReinhartAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals2
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Sean CouturierPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:33Christian Dvorak Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (2), Sean Couturier (2)2–5
- P317:43Bobby Brink Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (2), Nick Seeler (1)2–4
- P315:50Sean Couturier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (2), Jamie Drysdale (1)2–3
- P310:15Sam Bennett Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (1), Brad Marchand (2)2–2
- P219:22Sam Reinhart Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (2)1–2
- P215:47Sean Couturier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (2), Travis Sanheim (1)0–2
- P18:54Tyson Foerster Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:54Tyson Foerster Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (1)FLA 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 43% → 58% +16PHI 43% → 58%+16 pts
- P215:47Sean Couturier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (2), Travis Sanheim (1)FLA 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 67% → 85% +17PHI 67% → 85%+17 pts
- P219:22Sam Reinhart Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (2)FLA 1 – 2 PHI · FLA 13% → 31% +18FLA 13% → 31%+18 pts
- P310:15Sam Bennett Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (1), Brad Marchand (2)FLA 2 – 2 PHI · FLA 20% → 53% +33FLA 20% → 53%+33 pts
- P315:50Sean Couturier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (2), Jamie Drysdale (1)FLA 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 48% → 91% +43PHI 48% → 91%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 58%
- ML FLA -150 / PHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 56.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -138
- PHI +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 2.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −37 | +7 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.92 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +44 Elo | FLA 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.627th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.6% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 87.9%32nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 14th of 3219–21 | Road vs home | 20–2122nd of 32 |
| 28th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 32 |
| 1st of 321575 | Elo rating | 145230th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  FLA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 53–52 | 40–42 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–48 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 17–4 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders | 54–51 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–3 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.