Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals2
- Kyle ConnorAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Trevor ZegrasAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:47Tanner Pearson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P317:39Matvei Michkov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Juulsen (1), Sean Couturier (3)4–2
- P39:40Mark Scheifele Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (4), Alex Iafallo (1)4–1
- P217:43Morgan Barron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (3)3–1
- P216:22Owen Tippett Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (3), Travis Sanheim (3)2–1
- P27:01Mark Scheifele Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (4)2–0
- P15:45Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (2), Gustav Nyquist (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:45Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (2), Gustav Nyquist (2)WPG 1 – 0 PHI · WPG 55% → 69% +14WPG 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P27:01Mark Scheifele Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (4)WPG 2 – 0 PHI · WPG 72% → 86% +14WPG 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P216:22Owen Tippett Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (3), Travis Sanheim (3)WPG 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 11% → 25% +15PHI 11% → 25%+15 pts
- P217:43Morgan Barron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (3)WPG 3 – 1 PHI · WPG 75% → 90% +15WPG 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P39:40Mark Scheifele Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (4), Alex Iafallo (1)WPG 4 – 1 PHI · WPG 97% → >99% +3WPG 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 55%
- ML WPG -135 / PHI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- WPG: Elo 59.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 2.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +67 Elo | WPG 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.314th of 32 |
| 28th of 3242.9% | Shot share | 39.6%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 91.9%7th of 32 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 31 |
| 14th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 15581st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321558 | Elo rating | 145829th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  WPG |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–48 | 40–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–37 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders | 42–53 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.