Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Morgan BarronGoals1
- Morgan BarronAssists1
- Nino NiederreiterPoints2
Islanders- Emil HeinemanGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:35Mark Scheifele Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Kyle Connor (2)5–2
- P214:45Emil Heineman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (1), Matthew Schaefer (2)4–2
- P212:39Tanner Pearson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (1)4–1
- P22:19Logan Stanley Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (1), Morgan Barron (2)3–1
- P22:05Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tony DeAngelo (1)2–1
- P111:48Nino Niederreiter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (1), Jonathan Toews (1)2–0
- P17:35Morgan Barron Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cole Koepke (1), Logan Stanley (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:35Morgan Barron Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cole Koepke (1), Logan Stanley (1)WPG 1 – 0 NYI · WPG 51% → 66% +15WPG 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P111:48Nino Niederreiter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (1), Jonathan Toews (1)WPG 2 – 0 NYI · WPG 67% → 80% +13WPG 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P22:05Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tony DeAngelo (1)WPG 2 – 1 NYI · NYI 17% → 32% +14NYI 17% → 32%+14 pts
- P22:19Logan Stanley Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (1), Morgan Barron (2)WPG 3 – 1 NYI · WPG 69% → 83% +14WPG 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P212:39Tanner Pearson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (1)WPG 4 – 1 NYI · WPG 86% → 95% +9WPG 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 51%
- ML WPG -115 / NYI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 55.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.7 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −20 | 0 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +36 Elo | WPG 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024-25) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 8th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 50.7%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%17th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 1st of 3226–15 | Road vs home | 19–2225th of 32 |
| 25th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321554 | Elo rating | 146328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  WPG |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–48 | 38–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–37 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 42–53 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–2 NYI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.