Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Boone JennerGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists1
- Boone JennerPoints2
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals1
- Colin BlackwellAssists1
- Tyler SeguinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:00Kent Johnson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (3)5–1
- P314:26Dmitri Voronkov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (1), Kirill Marchenko (2)4–1
- P37:21Denton Mateychuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (1), Zach Aston-Reese (2)3–1
- P211:58Tyler Seguin Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Colin Blackwell (1), Adam Erne (1)2–1
- P118:42Boone Jenner Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Charlie Coyle (3), Damon Severson (2)2–0
- P14:33Adam Fantilli Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (4), Kent Johnson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:33Adam Fantilli Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (4), Kent Johnson (1)CBJ 1 – 0 DAL · CBJ 38% → 53% +15CBJ 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P118:42Boone Jenner Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Charlie Coyle (3), Damon Severson (2)CBJ 2 – 0 DAL · CBJ 57% → 73% +16CBJ 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P211:58Tyler Seguin Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Colin Blackwell (1), Adam Erne (1)CBJ 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 20% → 37% +18DAL 20% → 37%+18 pts
- P37:21Denton Mateychuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (1), Zach Aston-Reese (2)CBJ 3 – 1 DAL · CBJ 74% → 93% +18CBJ 74% → 93%+18 pts
- P314:26Dmitri Voronkov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (1), Kirill Marchenko (2)CBJ 4 – 1 DAL · CBJ 99% → >99% +1CBJ 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 62%
- ML CBJ +155 / DAL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 62.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -166
- CBJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −3 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +89 Elo | DAL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.625th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 20th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 46.7%25th of 32 |
| 6th of 3292.4% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 14th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
| 10th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 15295th of 32 |
| 21st of 321492 | Elo rating | 15367th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.