Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists1
- Mikko RantanenPoints1
Blues- Pius SuterGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:59Pius Suter Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none1–3
- P317:42Mikko Rantanen Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Wyatt Johnston (2), Lian Bichsel (1)1–2
- P213:52Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (3) Poke, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (4), Tyler Tucker (2)0–2
- P22:27Jordan Kyrou Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:27Jordan Kyrou Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (2)DAL 0 – 1 STL · STL 47% → 65% +18STL 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P213:52Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (3) Poke, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (4), Tyler Tucker (2)DAL 0 – 2 STL · STL 69% → 85% +16STL 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P317:42Mikko Rantanen Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Wyatt Johnston (2), Lian Bichsel (1)DAL 1 – 2 STL · DAL <1% → 3% +3DAL <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P318:59Pius Suter Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneDAL 1 – 3 STL · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML DAL -125 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 47.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +19 Elo | STL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.5 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 4.330th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −1.329th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3246.7% | Shot share | 51.8%12th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 84.3%31st of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 32 |
| 4th of 321528 | Opponent Elo | 147527th of 32 |
| 6th of 321540 | Elo rating | 152011th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  DAL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–56 | 52–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 33–44 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 39–20 |
| Overs–unders | 45–55 | 45–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–2 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.