Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals1
- Pontus HolmbergAssists1
- Ryan McDonaghPoints1
Blue Jackets- Damon SeversonGoals1
- Zach WerenskiAssists1
- Damon SeversonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P31:15Kirill Marchenko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (3), Zach Werenski (3)2–3
- P213:59Damon Severson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (1), Charlie Coyle (2)2–2
- P116:22Anthony Cirelli Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (5), Victor Hedman (5)2–1
- P112:42Ryan McDonagh Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (2), Erik Cernak (1)1–1
- P14:58Kent Johnson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Boone Jenner (3), Adam Fantilli (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:58Kent Johnson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Boone Jenner (3), Adam Fantilli (2)TB 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 69% +14CBJ 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P112:42Ryan McDonagh Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (2), Erik Cernak (1)TB 1 – 1 CBJ · TB 31% → 46% +16TB 31% → 46%+16 pts
- P116:22Anthony Cirelli Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (5), Victor Hedman (5)TB 2 – 1 CBJ · TB 46% → 63% +17TB 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P213:59Damon Severson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (1), Charlie Coyle (2)TB 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 31% → 53% +21CBJ 31% → 53%+21 pts
- P31:15Kirill Marchenko Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (3), Zach Werenski (3)TB 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 52% → 76% +24CBJ 52% → 76%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 54%
- ML TB +110 / CBJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- CBJ: Elo 60.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −23 | +18 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.58 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.46 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +74 Elo | CBJ 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.521st of 32 |
| 30th of 3242.5% | Shot share | 46.2%23rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 92.5%5th of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 32 |
| 17th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150514th of 32 |
| 10th of 321522 | Elo rating | 149021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  TB |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–43 | 49–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–31 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 42–45 | 46–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–2 CBJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.