Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- JJ MoserGoals1
- Conor GeekieAssists1
- JJ MoserPoints1
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:36Dylan Larkin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (1)1–2
- P316:17J.J. Moser Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (4), Conor Geekie (1)1–1
- P113:02Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (4), Mason Appleton (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:02Axel Sandin-Pellikka Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (4), Mason Appleton (1)TB 0 – 1 DET · DET 46% → 62% +16DET 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P316:17J.J. Moser Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (4), Conor Geekie (1)TB 1 – 1 DET · TB 7% → 51% +44TB 7% → 51%+44 pts
- OT3:36Dylan Larkin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (1)TB 1 – 2 DET · DET 49% → >99% +50DET 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -130 / DET +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- TB: Elo 49.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 2.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −10 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +3 Elo | DET 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.510th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.0 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.86th of 32 |
| 31st of 3240.0% | Shot share | 51.2%16th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 32 |
| 13th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15322nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321524 | Elo rating | 150414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  TB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–43 | 48–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–31 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 41–20 |
| Overs–unders | 42–45 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–5 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.