Florida Panthers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals1
- Anton LundellAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints1
Red Wings- Mason AppletonGoals2
- Dylan LarkinAssists2
- Mason AppletonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:42Michael Rasmussen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alex DeBrincat (6)1–4
- P318:02Mason Appleton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (1), Alex DeBrincat (5)1–3
- P214:05Brad Marchand Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Anton Lundell (3)1–2
- P29:36Patrick Kane Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (2), Dylan Larkin (3)0–2
- P22:09Mason Appleton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:09Mason Appleton Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (2)FLA 0 – 1 DET · DET 43% → 62% +18DET 43% → 62%+18 pts
- P29:36Patrick Kane Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (2), Dylan Larkin (3)FLA 0 – 2 DET · DET 64% → 81% +17DET 64% → 81%+17 pts
- P214:05Brad Marchand Goal (3) Wrap-around, assists: Anton Lundell (3)FLA 1 – 2 DET · FLA 17% → 34% +17FLA 17% → 34%+17 pts
- P318:02Mason Appleton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (1), Alex DeBrincat (5)FLA 1 – 3 DET · DET 98% → >99% +2DET 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P319:42Michael Rasmussen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alex DeBrincat (6)FLA 1 – 4 DET · DET 100% → 100% +0DET 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 58%
- ML FLA -155 / DET +130
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 55.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -140
- DET +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 2.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +40 Elo | FLA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.8 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3258.2% | Shot share | 50.3%17th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 87.5%26th of 32 |
| 24th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 1–110th of 30 |
| 30th of 321459 | Opponent Elo | 15209th of 32 |
| 1st of 321569 | Elo rating | 149815th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  FLA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 53–52 | 48–34 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–48 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 17–4 | 41–20 |
| Overs–unders | 54–51 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 4–3 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.