Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints3
Panthers- Brad MarchandGoals2
- Seth JonesAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:49Sidney Crosby Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (5), Evgeni Malkin (10)5–3
- P311:06Brad Marchand Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (1), Anton Lundell (5)4–3
- P34:49Connor Dewar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (5)4–2
- P32:24Sam Reinhart Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (4), Seth Jones (5)3–2
- P215:24Ben Kindel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (2)3–1
- P28:26Brad Marchand Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (3), Seth Jones (4)2–1
- P26:36Rickard Rakell Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Erik Karlsson (4), Sidney Crosby (5)2–0
- P16:24Sidney Crosby Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (3), Evgeni Malkin (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:36Rickard Rakell Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Erik Karlsson (4), Sidney Crosby (5)PIT 2 – 0 FLA · PIT 59% → 76% +17PIT 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P28:26Brad Marchand Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (3), Seth Jones (4)PIT 2 – 1 FLA · FLA 23% → 40% +18FLA 23% → 40%+18 pts
- P215:24Ben Kindel Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Novak (2)PIT 3 – 1 FLA · PIT 64% → 82% +18PIT 64% → 82%+18 pts
- P32:24Sam Reinhart Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (4), Seth Jones (5)PIT 3 – 2 FLA · FLA 12% → 31% +19FLA 12% → 31%+19 pts
- P34:49Connor Dewar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (5)PIT 4 – 2 FLA · PIT 71% → 90% +19PIT 71% → 90%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 64%
- ML PIT +165 / FLA -195
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 65.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- FLA -175
- PIT +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.4 – 3.1 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +111 Elo | FLA 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 69.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.917th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3247.5% | Shot share | 51.5%11th of 32 |
| 8th of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%12th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 30th of 321475 | Opponent Elo | 147727th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321486 | Elo rating | 15573rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–1 | 1–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–1 | 1–7 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–5 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.