Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Scoring summary
- P214:20
Owen Power Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alex Tuch (3), Peyton Krebs (2)0–3 - P211:12Josh Doan Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jason Zucker (1), Zach Benson (5)0–2
- P17:13Josh Doan Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tage Thompson (3), Rasmus Dahlin (4)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:13Josh Doan Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tage Thompson (3), Rasmus Dahlin (4)FLA 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 43% → 58% +15BUF 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P211:12Josh Doan Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jason Zucker (1), Zach Benson (5)FLA 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 65% → 82% +17BUF 65% → 82%+17 pts
- P214:20Owen Power Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Alex Tuch (3), Peyton Krebs (2)FLA 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 84% → 94% +10BUF 84% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 58%
- ML FLA -150 / BUF +130
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- FLA: Elo 57.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -138
- BUF +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 2.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +2 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +52 Elo | FLA 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
FLA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.528th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.521st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −1.026th of 32 |
| 9th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 45.2%25th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 91.2%8th of 32 |
| 26th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 1–223rd of 32 |
| 28th of 321472 | Opponent Elo | 15119th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321561 | Elo rating | 147924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  FLA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 53–52 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 36–48 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 17–4 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 54–51 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 6–1 BUF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.