Florida Panthers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists1
- Evan RodriguesPoints1
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Timo MeierAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:47Nico Hischier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (2)1–3
- P36:23Timo Meier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Simon Nemec (2), Brenden Dillon (2)1–2
- P25:48Jack Hughes Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (3), Timo Meier (2)1–1
- P11:59Evan Rodrigues Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (3), Seth Jones (3)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:59Evan Rodrigues Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (3), Seth Jones (3)FLA 1 – 0 NJ · FLA 41% → 56% +15FLA 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P25:48Jack Hughes Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (3), Timo Meier (2)FLA 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 38% → 57% +19NJ 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P36:23Timo Meier Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Simon Nemec (2), Brenden Dillon (2)FLA 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 54% → 81% +27NJ 54% → 81%+27 pts
- P311:47Nico Hischier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (2)FLA 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 86% → 98% +12NJ 86% → 98%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 59%
- ML FLA +135 / NJ -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- NJ: Elo 52.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NJ -143
- FLA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.5 – 3.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −35 | −10 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.88 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +19 Elo | NJ 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.78th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.722nd of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 6th of 3256.0% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 87.8%26th of 32 |
| 29th of 321468 | Opponent Elo | 15215th of 32 |
| 1st of 321564 | Elo rating | 149319th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  FLA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 53–52 | 34–53 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 36–48 | 25–42 |
| Underdog | 17–4 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 54–51 | 35–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–3 NJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 6.